Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
