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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It often functions as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the prize. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But the latest race is profoundly different. The list of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers ascending collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still