Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
